During recent weeks, the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) settled in the eastern equatorial Pacific to the longitudes of the Americas. Consequently, trade winds have eased across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean preventing the upwelling of cooler waters to sustain La Nina. The Nino SSTA regions have warmed significantly.

In Australia, the past week was mostly drier and cooler than normal. Re-emerging heat and dryness will affect the entire continent this week. However, during the medium range Eastern Australia turns very wet. Potential for impacts from a tropical cyclone are apparent for early next week while much of the North turns generally eater than normal in the 8-14/11-15-day period.

NOAA updates their monthly probabilistic climate forecasts. Highlighted is a wet March (and spring) across the Ohio Valley and vicinity where additional high impact weather events are likely. A dry spring is ahead for the Southwest U.S. while the Northwest shifts wetter.

The weekend Kentucky flooding and high wind episode across the Mid-Atlantic States was triggered, in part, due to an eastward shifting convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation. During the past 7-10 days, the effect of the passing MJO event through the tropical East Pacific severely injured the La Nina episode.