A warmer than normal southeastern Pacific propels Hilary to a major hurricane late this week and eventually excessive rains and flooding in California while tropical rains soak Florida. Away from the wet weather, extreme heat and dryness dominates the Central and Mid-south U.S.

Two new tropical waves are apparent in the morning analysis. The first, located near 30W, is weak but expected to drift westward with some development possible over the next 5 days. NOAA/NHC indicates only a 10% chance of a tropical cyclone in the 3-5-day forecast. The second tropical wave, still over West Africa, is stronger with a 30% chance of tropical cyclone risk late this week.

Forecast factors suggest the bulk of this year’s activity occurs in a 7-week period from late August to early October. Most of the tropical cyclone activity projected for 2023 (by NOAA, CSU, TSR, and CIC) should occur during this time.

The ERCOT System daily temperature average persists in the excessive hot zone into early next week. However, all forecast models are indicating the extreme heat should ease slightly.