North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season Scorecard

ERCOT Excessive Heat to Ease
08/10/2023, 8:20 am EDT
North Atlantic Tropics Beginning to Become Active
08/15/2023, 8:12 am EDT
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Discussion: We’re entering the most active part of the tropical cyclone season (Aug. 10-Oct. 20) with a North Atlantic basin generally favorable for development. Currently, there are no significant tropical waves in the North Atlantic basin and the 2-week outlook is for limited (20%) risk of tropical cyclone development in the central North Atlantic tropics. Therefore, we may have to wait until about August 25th for activity to begin rolling. Meanwhile, macroscale factors identifying tropical cyclone risk include a VERY supportive record warm North Atlantic tropics and subtropics and generally light shear. The record warm ocean surface lasts through the tropical cyclone season. However, increased upper-level westerly shear inhibiting tropical cyclone activity due to an evolving El Nino climate is due by October 1st suggesting late season activity is diminishing rapidly. Tropical waves moving off West Africa should increase intensity as that zone becomes more consistently wetter than normal beginning September 1st. Forecast factors suggest the bulk of this year’s activity occurs in a 7-week period from late August to early October. Most of the tropical cyclone activity projected for 2023 (by NOAA, CSU, TSR, and CIC) should occur during this time.