A new concern area is evolving drought in Iowa. Soil moisture is in deficit for the northern 2/3 of the state. In June so far, soil moisture trend is much drier for Iowa and southern Minnesota of the western Corn Belt.

Assumed is that U.S. drought risk is the only significant dry regime influence on northern hemisphere crops for the summer 2021 season. Is that notion true? The second-most watched area is the Black Sea region. Late spring rains have doused marginal dry soils in Ukraine, Southwest Russia and Russia’s Southern District. Not far away an intense drought is occurring across Turkey. The eastern spring wheat region in Russia has shifted into drought.

The North Atlantic SSTA analysis reveals why the seasonal CIC tropical cyclone forecast is slightly lower than other forecasters. The tropics and subtropics have cooled to near or below normal during late spring and continue to cooldown. A cooler regime in the deep tropics would lower hurricane/ACE index values.

D3/D4 drought is present across North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and into southern Canada (Fig. 1). D3/D4 drought conditions during summertime do not erode unless an interaction between the prevailing storm track and tropical moisture (or direct impact from a tropical cyclone) occurs. Interaction with tropical moisture for storms passing the northern Great Plains will have to wait until late summer. As a result, harsh drought continues in this region for the next 8-10 weeks (at least).