In the Great Plains, summer heat is on the horizon. The forecast remains wet across all major crop areas (except western Great Plains wheat) well into next week. However, the wet belt is lifting northward in the 8-14-day period and the risk of >95F/35C is developing and expanding.

The Nino34 SSTA constructed analog forecast through May 2027 reveals a substantial change from last month. The potential for weak El Nino later this year is erased, and neutral ENSO is preferred into 2026. 2 of the 4 analogs favor a weak La Nina risk for later this year. Neutral ENSO is likely for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season. Next year, the constructed analog forecast is similar with the previous outlook favoring continued neutral phase with potential for weak La Nina.

ECM has introduced a chilly burst across Argentina extending to Southern Brazil in the 11-15-day period. However, the GFS was completely disagreeable rendering a much warmer solution. The following GFS model run shows the cooler result. Therefore, forecast confidence on potential important cold is on the table for the 11-15-day period.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast did a good job forecasting a cool/wet trough in Western Russia for June. The week 2-4 outlook identifies that pattern change. To compensate for the trough, very warm to hot and dry risk increases in Europe.