The North Atlantic SSTA analysis reveals why the seasonal CIC tropical cyclone forecast is slightly lower than other forecasters. The tropics and subtropics have cooled to near or below normal during late spring and continue to cooldown. A cooler regime in the deep tropics would lower hurricane/ACE index values.

D3/D4 drought is present across North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and into southern Canada (Fig. 1). D3/D4 drought conditions during summertime do not erode unless an interaction between the prevailing storm track and tropical moisture (or direct impact from a tropical cyclone) occurs. Interaction with tropical moisture for storms passing the northern Great Plains will have to wait until late summer. As a result, harsh drought continues in this region for the next 8-10 weeks (at least).

On Tuesday NOAA/SPC issued 495 severe weather reports, mostly damaging wind gusts. The amount was slightly higher than the previous high amount for 2021 (480 reports on April 9). The 2-day total for severe weather reports is a whopping 922!

The 2020-21 cool season valid October 202o to April 2021 produced a warmer-than-normal climate and below normal heating demand for the U.S. The two exceptions are the month of February which included the arctic outbreak into the Central U.S. with greatest impact on Texas and also April which was slightly cooler than normal.