The rapid warming of the Nino12 SSTA region has caused a wet bias to western South America in recent weeks. However, the moisture from the warm water/high moisture source region is entrained into vigorous upper troughs moving across South America sweeping heavy rain into Brazil while leaving Argentina dry the next 1-2 weeks.

AIFS ENS indicates an arctic air mass loitering across Siberia in the 6-10-day period while an upper trough embedded in the subtropical jet stream is sufficiently intense to bring heavy rain to East China and Japan. After the rain the cold air mass shifts to China although moderating.

After a dry summer, wet weather spread across much of Australia after mid-February and consolidates in the East in March. Anomalous heat continues across the drought area across Southern Australia.

The U.S. weather pattern shifts to problematic with a large array of hazards focused on the western half of the U.S. Featured are widespread wind and snow advisories/watch/warnings including a Red Flag Warning across much of the western Great Plains. Widespread dense fog stretches from Dallas to Cleveland. An offshore storm brings high wind near the Northeast U.S. Corridor.