During the past 30 days, the ECM ENS and 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS have finished 1st and 2nd forecasting the weather pattern (500 MB anomalies) for days 6-10. In the 11-15-day period, the top two forecasters are ECM ENS and GFS ENS.

After a drier than normal month of October for much of Brazil, a wetter risk is presented in November for some (not all) parts of Brazil as a strong negative Antarctic oscillation fades and transient Madden Julian oscillation shifts eastward.

In a reversal of pattern, the dryness and anomalous heat in Brazil during much of October is squashed by November rains while the drier (and hotter) pattern shifts to Argentina. The wet bias in November is across East Brazil.

At 8AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa was located about 55 miles south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica with central pressure 901 MB and top wind 175 mph while moving north-northeast at 7 mph. HWRF/HMON hurricane forecast models lower surface pressure to around 890 MB today forcing maximum wind to around 190 mph.