The most important part of this week’s ENSO diagnostic report is an eastward shift of an aggressive Kelvin Wave to just east of the Dateline. The next MJO event to move through the equatorial East Pacific could push this warmth to the South America coast and trigger an El Nino onset. The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates chance of a strong El Nino later this year.  

There is potential for a major snowstorm in the Northeast States early next week centered on Tuesday. The most likely jackpot zone for heavy snow is inland southern New England with areas close to the coast limited in snowfall due to wind off the relatively warm ocean water. There is potential for extreme wind and a major coastal surge for east/southeast Massachusetts.

The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast yield additional impressive amount across California. The storminess extends inland across the Great Basin to the North-central U.S. mostly as snow. Interestingly, forecast models maintain the stormy pattern in California despite an easing of the sharp -PNA pattern of the past couple weeks.

he summer of 2022-23 wet monsoon across Northern Australia remains impressive. Many areas observed excessive rainfall last week including much of the north and northeast portion of the continent. Patchy moderate rains were observed on the northwest and east coast. Of concern is the 10-day outlook which unloads excessive rainfall across a large swath of Queensland.