In a rare occurrence, the projected U.S. gas population weight HDD for January 2023 is warmer than the already verified DEC-22 value and projected FEB-23 forecast.

The 5-day outlook is mostly dry across the Argentina and far southeast Brazil drought region. Anomalous heat risk is high in Argentina only. In the medium-range, wet risk increases. Thundershower activity is more widespread across Southeast Brazil reaching Uruguay at times and also Paraguay into northern Argentina. However, the core drought zone in northeast/east Argentina is likely mostly dry and somewhat hotter than normal as drought worsens.

Australia Bureau of Meteorology more forcefully indicates a sufficiently warm Nino34 SSTA regime to warrant an El Nino event by June.

The combination of week-long period of no rain, excessive heat, shallow and deep layer soil moisture deficits produces a flash drought risk across Argentina into the second third of January.