The persistent “atmospheric river” storm track slamming the U.S. West Coast, particularly California, into early January leaves the Great Plains very warm and without much precipitation. The ECM dry duration forecast is up to 360 hours across parts of the Dakotas, Western Corn Belt, and southwest Great Plains wheat growing areas. Record warm temperatures are likely from Nebraska/Kansas to Texas during the warm pattern.

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for weeks 4-6 ahead continue to favor a mild climate, especially in the East. The consensus of operational models are trending colder, near the 10-year normal, for the week ending January 8th. So…operational models are pointing toward a colder regime whereas “weeklies” ignore that shift to maintain the warmth. Two AI models are cold in the 3-4-week period.

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook is updated. The forecast indicates drought expansion for much of the South U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region. Drought erosion or dissipation is projected for the Interior Northwest and Midwest/Mid-South U.S.

The stratospheric warming event of mid-November to mid-December is dissipating. The warming event took place on the American side of the North Pole and spawned a polar vortex in North America causing the early meteorological winter 2025-26 arctic outbreak across the eastern states. Forecast models indicate the cold stratosphere across Eurasia expands cross-polar into North America later this month.