ECM roars the arctic air into the Gulf region next TUE and WED morning. The trend is colder and additional chill is possible due to proximity of snow cover preventing the arctic air from moderating upon approach to the Gulf of Mexico. Note the well below zero values into Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Incoming arctic chill to the U.S. for the middle third of January while the deep freeze is already across Europe likely enhanced by expanding snow cover the next 2 weeks. A wetter pattern change for Brazil in early January reverses drier (again) in the medium-range.

January 2024 looks like a snowy and cold month across the U.S. However, December 2023 produced the second lowest North America snow cover in the 1966-2023 climatology. The least snowy December was in 1980 which was a brutally cold month across Canada and the Northeast U.S. but moisture starved limiting snowfall.

The extreme cold of the “Uri” arctic outbreak centered on Feb. 12-18, 2021, yielded 272 U.S. gas population weight HDD which was about 80 HDD colder than the 30-year normal and 84 HDD colder than the 10-year normal. The preliminary estimate of U.S. gas population weight HDD is in the 234-244 range for the Jan. 11-17, 2024, cold outbreak.