Significant wet weather shifts across the southern U.S. over the next 5 days. Excessive rain causing a flood risk emerges in Kansas today and Arkansas tomorrow (where severe storms are likely). Excessive rain causes flooding across Western Texas late week. The 5-day rainfall totals through the weekend are in the 3-5-inch range centered on Arkansas/Louisiana, the Southeast Coast including Florida, and the New Mexico/Texas state line.

Tropical cyclone activity during 2025 so far has featured tropical cyclone tracks mostly near and off the U.S. East Coast. One possible explanation for lack of activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and deep tropics is the persistent (much) stronger than normal trade winds preventing systems from developing.

Europe continues to encounter widespread harsh drought. The drought is related to the NAWH-trough and downstream ridge pattern, common during the past decade especially during the warm season. However, pattern change is on the way.

Erin has significantly cooled the ocean surface east of the Bahamas. SST in the core of the cooler zone are 80-81F, below the threshold to sustain a tropical cyclone. The 7-day SST change in near 2.5C due east of the Bahamas. To the north of Puerto Rico, north of 25N, the SST are somewhat warmer than normal which explains the potential hurricane intensity of tropical cyclone models for 90L.