The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS is the least wet biased model. Today’s 15-day AI GC percent of normal rainfall outlook for South America reveals a drier than normal pattern across most of Brazil and Central Argentina while the 24-hour change suggests a sneaky wet regime in Northern Argentina.

The consensus of operational models U.S. gas population weigh HDD forecasts is a trend from the early January warmth back to near normal for the week ending January 22nd. The 06Z GFS was colder than the 30-year normal. Interestingly, the ECM is colder for the second half of January across the Northern U.S. while CFS maintains the southern 2/3 of U.S. warmth. Therefore, the ECM/GFS HDD projections are near to below the 10-year normal in the extended range. However, the machine learning models are all cold to very cold for late January into early February.

Prohibitive rainfall was observed across Northern Australia during December 2025 including departures from normal >400 MM (~16 in.) in northwest Queensland. Conversely, despite La Nina climate, the East Coast was extremely dry. The heavy convection driving the wet climate across Northern Australia caused previously warm SSTA to cool significantly, especially off the East Coast where 30-day changes exceed 4C.

The ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast identifies the cold pattern extending across all Western Eurasia. Helping to enhance the cold is gradual snow cover/snow depth increase peaking in 10 days.