The outlook provided by Climate Impact Company indicates above normal risk of cold weather for JAN/FEB. Cited is increased risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) which could cause moderately strong (and brief) polar vortex events that generate cold weather in the U.S. with the greatest risk in February. Note that if these events fail to form, the forecast is likely much warmer.

The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to indicate an El Nino 2023-24 peak over the next 1-2 months followed by a steady weakening signature for the first half of 2024 to neutral ENSO mid-year. The latest 8 ensemble members of the Nino34 SSTA forecast indicate a vigorous ENSO phase change to La Nina for JUL/AUG of 2024!

Satellite view reveals a persistent low-pressure trough extending northward from low pressure off the Southeast Australia Coast maintains wet weather in East Australia with hefty amount continuing. The latest 10-day outlook by GFS stays very wet in the East. There are some signs that the unexpected wet weather regime may ease after 10 days.

At the surface, forecast models are very warm across the U.S. HOWEVER, trouble may be brewing in the upper atmosphere. The ECM ENS indicates a stratospheric warming event taking place over northwestern North America while GFS has this event with higher amplitude centered over Canada.