The equatorial subsurface Pacific Ocean has warmed to above normal. If the warming trend continues La Nina will end and El Nino risk increases. The warming is expected to continue for another month or 2 and then re-cool later this year.

NOAA/CPC indicates a large region of excessive to extreme heat during the medium-range for California, the Interior West and especially the Southwest U.S. and Great Plains to the East-central States. Hottest temperatures are in the Southwest Desert when 110’s is common in 9 days. Additionally, afternoon temperatures make a run at 110F in Oklahoma (and vicinity) at the same time.

Our concern as June closes is the widening dry-to-drought regime across many regions of the U.S. COUPLED with a massive zone located in the Central U.S. of deep layer soil moisture deficit. The deep layer soil moisture deficit is caused by long-term climate. The conditions describe foreshadow expanding drought and attendant anomalous heat for mid-to-late summer.

In the outer tropical North Atlantic basin a tropical disturbance (94L) is drifting due west with some organization. SST are sufficiently warm in this low latitude to sustain 94L and the shear axis is well to the north and showing signs of weakening.