Boston Arctic Blast in 10 Days

Bureau of Meteorology/Australia Cuts El Nino
01/08/2019, 7:55 am EST
GFS and ECM Weekend Snowfall Forecast
01/11/2019, 9:23 am EST
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Highlight:  Colder midday model run. Boston 5/0 on Jan. 21.

Midday 12Z GFS…

Days 6-10: Colder Northeast.

Days 11-15: Colder East.

DatesHDD forecast12-hr change24 hours agoNOAA Nml
Jan 4-10166.7+0.2167.1225
Jan 11-17213.2+8.3205.5226
Jan 18-24245.9+6.4235.7224

 Table 1: CWG tabulates the 12Z GFS OP gas population weight HDD forecast into later January.

The fine print…We’re expecting a colder East climate to evolve the last 1/3 of January. However, in today’s climate signal forecast in the extended-range the NAO becomes weak positive in 12-16 days while the MJO may regenerate in phase_5 (Indonesia) which supports a warm U.S. climate. The midday cold model run is too cold!

Weekend snowstorm…Forecast amount increases Ohio Valley with widespread 5-10 in. and locally higher amount south-central Illinois (Fig. 1). However, the storm is not quite as intense as previously forecast across the Mid-Atlantic States and the Virginia forecast amount is cut back to the 4-8 in. range. This is the just-received 12Z GFS OP forecast.

Fig. 1: The 12Z GFS OP depiction of a SAT/SUN snowstorm stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region.

Midday model/Boston MAX/MIN forecast…A vigorous cold 12Z GFS OP model run indicates a max/min forecast of 5/0 in Boston Jan. 21.


Fig. 2: The 12Z GFS OP depiction of the 15-day MAX/MIN forecast for Boston, MA showing arctic air for Jan. 20-22.