Shock Cold Next Week and Following Week Based on Today’s 12Z GFS

Arctic Impact on Southern U.S. Increasing
01/09/2024, 6:56 am EST
All 50 States Have Weather Hazards; Northeast U.S. Snowstorm Next Tuesday
01/12/2024, 9:00 am EST
Show all

Fig. 1-2: The midday 12Z GFS medium-range temperature forecast.

Discussion: The 12Z GFS projects a cold medium-range forecast that is stronger and longer than the FEB-21 “Uri” event. Support for the cold is singularly generated by the GFS model. The 6-10-day forecast frigid forecast trends much colder into Texas (Fig. 1). The 11-15-day forecast is expected to moderate due to mild Pacific influence. However, the GFS doubts that possibility and generates a much colder 11-15-day forecast at midday (Fig. 2). The 12Z GFS generates a whopping 281.5 HDD for Jan. 19-25 (Table 1) which is about 10 HDD colder than the “Uri” event Feb. 12-18, 2021.

DatesHDD Forecast12-Hr Change24-Hr Change30-Year NML10-Year NML
Jan. 5-11

 

 

191.5-0.4-0.2209.4201.2
Jan. 12-18

 

273.5+12.6+10.8211.9205.3
Jan. 19-25

 

281.5+26.1+52.3212.5207.0

Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.