Shock Cold Next Week and Following Week Based on Today’s 12Z GFS

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Fig. 1-2: The midday 12Z GFS medium-range temperature forecast.

Discussion: The 12Z GFS projects a cold medium-range forecast that is stronger and longer than the FEB-21 “Uri” event. Support for the cold is singularly generated by the GFS model. The 6-10-day forecast frigid forecast trends much colder into Texas (Fig. 1). The 11-15-day forecast is expected to moderate due to mild Pacific influence. However, the GFS doubts that possibility and generates a much colder 11-15-day forecast at midday (Fig. 2). The 12Z GFS generates a whopping 281.5 HDD for Jan. 19-25 (Table 1) which is about 10 HDD colder than the “Uri” event Feb. 12-18, 2021.

DatesHDD Forecast12-Hr Change24-Hr Change30-Year NML10-Year NML
Jan. 5-11



Jan. 12-18


Jan. 19-25



Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.