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Fig. 1: The latest Europe Drought Observatory soil moisture anomaly analysis across Europe to the Black Sea region.

Discussion: The Europe Drought Observatory most recent soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals dramatic improvement across much of Europe including France to U.K. and Ireland where moderate drought leftover from last summer remained into early March (Fig. 1). Northern Europe is trending drier. The Black Sea region is an area to monitor as moderate drought is quite strong and extends to far southwest Russia. The latest 15-day outlook trends in the direction of early April persistence as wet weather continues from Ireland and U.K. to Central and Southeast Europe and through the Black Sea region (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: The GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe into Western Russia.