Central South America Rains Forecast to Shift Into Brazil

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Thursday November 20, 2025

Highlight: Wet shift from central continent to East Brazil remains indicated.

Fig. 1-2: Daily soil moisture anomalies analysis and past 7 days rainfall across South America.

Discussion: Soil moisture anomalies analysis reveal steady Brazil drought Northern Argentina contains areas of wet soil moisture (Fig. 1). The past 7 days have been very wet across Bolivia, Paraguay, and Northeast Argentina while Central and East Brazil have stayed dry (Fig. 2). Operational forecasts continue to indicate a wet weather shift to Brazil. The mega-cluster ensemble indicates wet weather risk is highest in Northeast Brazil into the weekend while Argentina turns drier (Fig. 3). The drier trend for Argentina is also evident during the medium range while wet focus shifts to East Brazil (Fig. 4-5).

Fig. 3-5: Mega-cluster ensemble 1-15-day percent of normal “most likely” rainfall forecast across South America.