MAR/APR/MAY 2025 Climate Forecast Review for U.S., Europe/Western Russia, and South America

Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation outlook for the U.S. during meteorological spring.

Discussion: The climate contribution to the U.S. for the spring season by ENSO is less certain as meteorological winter ends. The spring outlook is reliant on a La Nina climate and projects a typical La Nina springtime signature featuring cool and wet weather in the Northwest U.S., a wet regime along the U.S./Canada border, and warmth and dryness in the Southern U.S. (Fig. 1-2). However, oceanic La Nina is decaying. If this process continues as meteorological spring begins, the current forecast may change likely favoring a warmer/drier solution.

The Europe/Western Russia springtime forecast is often made with below average confidence due to the weaker influence on climate in this region by ENSO. Given the weak presence of ENSO during early 2025, the forecast confidence is low. The outlook is generated primarily by the influence of North Atlantic SSTA regimes. Uniquely, the eastern North Atlantic including the Mediterranean Sea are much warmer than normal and have contributed to a generally mild winter season. This condition is likely to continue during spring. However, SSTA northwest and north of Europe is cooler than normal (for now) and the differences in the North Atlantic basin suggest a more active than normal jet stream pattern and resulting climate. The Europe/Western Russia spring climate is changeable and averages cooler and wetter in Western Russia after a mild/dry winter while Western Europe shifts warmer and drier (Fig. 3-4).

In South America, the autumn outlook is driven by a constructed analog based on a SSTA dipole between weak La Nina conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and marine heatwaves either side of the central South America coastlines. As previously stated, La Nina is weakening, and further decay may affect the autumn climate pattern. For now, autumn outlook stresses a drier than normal climate across much of Brazil while Argentina observes near normal rainfall (Fig. 5-6).

Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation outlook for Europe/Western Russia during meteorological spring.

Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation outlook for South America during meteorological autumn.

Climate Impact Company will issue month 1-5 outlooks for Australia and China over the next couple days. Anticipated is a wet climate bias in Australia due to weak La Nina while ongoing drought in East China strengthens.