South-central U.S. Drought Concern

Chart of the day: NOAA expands flash drought risk area.

Discussion: The southern Great Plains remain at risk of flash drought through Mid-August due to lack of rain and searing heat which peaks (again) mid-month.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 18-24, 2024: Mid-south drought risk!

Discussion: Excessive heat is focused on West Texas/southwest Great Plains just-after mid-August. The heat is accompanied by dryness as rapid onset of expanding drought is present.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 25-31, 2024: Hot pattern centered on West Texas continues.

Discussion: Late August sustains the hot weather pattern with mostly dry conditions across the West and Central U.S. although the heat stays away from the immediate U.S. West Coast. The East is temperate. No obvious tropical cyclone risks.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid September 1-7, 2024: Scary heat and dryness Southwest into South-central U.S.

Discussion: The dry and hot pattern invites additional and intensifying heat centered on the southwest quadrant of the U.S. Canada remains very warm.