Southern Europe Drought Strengthening; Rhine River Level Dropping Again

Headline: Active U.S. storm track, Southern Europe drought strengthening, Argentina drier trend, and La Nina Modoki.

Fig. 1: GFS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast across the U.S.

Discussion: Weekend forecasts trend less cold in the Central/East U.S. However, the West stays cold and the thermal clash between the western chill and eastern warmth ignites an impressive 15-day storm track featuring 1-3 feet of snow across the northern tier of the U.S. and heavy rain in the Mid-south States (Fig. 1). Drought areas of the west/southwest Great Plains and west/south Texas miss the precipitation while everywhere else gains soil moisture.

Meanwhile, Southern Europe drought is intensifying (Fig. 2). Most notable, is the dry trend featuring lowering river levels in Italy. Once again, the Rhine River levels are lowering dramatically (Fig. 3). France is also shifting back into drought.

Fig. 2: Daily soil moisture analysis across Europe into Western Russia.

Fig. 3: Latest Rhine River water level forecast.

The 15-day rainfall forecasts across South America are trending drier in Central to Northeast Brazil and most of the Argentina drought zone (Fig. 4). Heavy rains manage to soak Paraguay and due eastward through Southeast Brazil.

Fig. 4: GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Argentina/Brazil.

Finally, the slow decay of La Nina continues. However, what remains of La Nina has Modoki characteristics. The cool bias is near the Dateline while the east equatorial Pacific is warming (Fig. 5).

Fig. 5: The latest SSTA analysis across the tropical Pacific Ocean.