Fig. 1: Next week’s precipitation amount forecast.
Discussion: Early next week, arctic air is piling in Southern Canada. Significant storminess unwinds TUE/WED as a large area of significant snow across the Northwest U.S. (and into the Great Basin) stretches into the northern Great Plains. On Wednesday, a blizzard is likely across the Dakotas and Minnesota with freezing rain/icing developing in south-central Wisconsin. At this time, severe thunderstorms will attack Louisiana to Tennessee. Into Thursday of next week, heavy snows associated with a blizzard stretch across the Upper Midwest to Ontario with significant icing across central Michigan and expanding eastward to northern New England. The snowstorm ends next Friday and is followed by over-achieving arctic air across fresh snow cover. The arctic air may be most effective late next week in New England due to high wind and extreme wind chill.
Fig. 2: Next week’s snowfall forecast.
Fig. 3: Next week’s ice accretion forecast.
In summary, next week brings heavy rain to the Mid-south States with the heaviest in the Tennessee Valley (Fig. 1). Severe storms extend from Louisiana to Tennessee. The heavy snow forecast for the Upper Midwest States, given a long duration blizzard, is on target with 2+ feet centered on Minnesota (Fig. 2). Freezing rain/ice accretion is likely near or above 0.5 in. from Wisconsin to southeast Ontario to northern New England (Fig. 3). The latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast projects a national heating demand peak for Feb. 24-Mar. 2 (Fig. 4).
Fig. 4: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus compared to 24 hours ago compared with the 30-year/10-year normal.