Lighter Than Normal Windspeeds Forecast for U.S. during June/July 2024

Fig. 1-2: The May 2024 zonal and meridional observed wind speed anomalies (so far).

May 2024 (so far) observation discussion and remainder of month forecast: The first half of May 2024 observed wind speed anomalies identify several distinct areas of anomalous patterns. In Texas, both the zonal (west-to-east/east-to-west) and meridional (north-to-south, south-to-north) wind speeds are lighter than normal implying below normal wind generation potential for this zone. Meanwhile, to the north, above normal zonal and meridional wind speeds are observed across South Dakota and Nebraska. The Carolinas observed above normal wind speeds. Forecasts for the second half of May reveal little opportunity for high wind. The only standout zone for high wind in both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day forecast is across the southern third of Texas where forecast models indicate 75-85% wind power potential thanks to gusty southerlies.

June 2024 forecast discussion: The upper air projection for June 2024 features an upper ridge in the West U.S. and an upper trough in the Northeast States. The influence on wind speeds is to produce light wind in the Southwest States and parts of the Mid-south U.S. while above normal wind speeds are projected across Montana. Strong meridional wind (mostly southerlies) is projected across California. Meridional wind is light across Texas although zonal (easterlies) wind is stronger than normal for Southern Texas. The Midwest States are mixed with stronger than normal zonal wind negated by weaker than normal meridional wind. Nationally, the forecast trend from the previous outlook favors lighter wind speeds.

Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog zonal and meridional wind anomaly forecast for June 2024. 

July 2024 forecast discussion: The mid-summer upper air pattern continues to favor an upper ridge in the West and a weak upper trough centered on the western Tennessee Valley. The sensible wind speed forecast favors lighter than normal conditions for July 2024. Wind speeds are lighter than normal across the western and southern Great Plains to East Texas and Louisiana. Above normal wind speeds are indicated for North Dakota, the Carolinas, and Northern California. Lighter than normal wind speeds are forecast for Michigan to New England.

Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog zonal and meridional wind anomaly forecast for July 2024.

June 2023 observation review discussion: Last June, wind speed anomalies were generally much below average values. Zonal wind was lighter than normal across the entire Northern U.S. while meridional wind speed anomalies were equally light from Texas to the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. Central California meridional wind speeds were stronger than normal. Above normal zonal wind speeds were also observed in Southern Texas and Florida.

Fig. 7-8: The June 2023 U.S. zonal and meridional wind speed anomaly observations.