Issuing Heat Alert for Central/South-central U.S. Late July

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

North America

Issued: Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Highlight: Issuing heat alert for Central/South-central U.S. late July.

Charts of the day: Preparing for ERCOT and SPP heat!

Discussion: An ALERT is issued for excessive heat risk across ERCOT and SPP electric reliability regions for late July/early August as high pressure is projected to drop anchor on the South-central Great Plains. Firmly in the 100F risk into early August is Kansas City, St. Louis, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, and most of Texas.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 20-26, 2025: Wet North; Building heat South.

Discussion: Deep trough in Western Canada clashes with South U.S. ridge to produce significant rain across the Canadian Prairies to the Midwest U.S. South of the wet weather regime, a broad area of dryness covers the West to South-central U.S. Building heat is developing across the South-central U.S. and vicinity.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 27-August 2, 2025: Central/South-central U.S. heat alert.

Discussion: Intense heat featuring widespread risk of >100F is indicated for the southern ½ to 2/3 of the U.S. into early August. The hardest hit is the Dallas to Kansas City to Atlanta triangle. The entire area is dry enhancing the heat. There is general agreement with other models (GFS ENS and AI) except for CFS V2 which is farther west with the upper ridge.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 3-9, 2025: Surprising Mid-south heat continues.

Discussion: Anomalous heat and dryness have settled on the wet soil region of the Mid-south to Texas for early August, which is a surprise.