Comparing Next Week’s Cold in Houston to Uri and Elliot Cold Events

Headline: Comparing next week’s cold in Houston to Uri and Elliot. Not quite as cold. However, an additional issue – possible significant icing mid-next week!

Fig. 1: Comparing the low temperature forecast for Houston next week to cold weather events Uri and Elliot.

Discussion: The cold weather forecast for early to middle of next week across ERCOT is stronger. Currently, the consensus of all forecast models yields a 3-day event of <32F in Houston with coldest morning at 24F on Jan. 21 (Fig. 1). By comparison, cold air events Uri (Feb. 14-20, 2021) and Elliot (Dec. 21-26, 2022) were stronger and longer in duration. The snow cover is nearby ERCOT now. However, a milder pattern ahead for this week into early next weekend will cause snow cover to retreat well; to the north (Fig. 2). Consequently, the incoming cold air mass moderates slightly and is less likely to be as extreme as the Uri and Elliot episodes when 13-15F were observed. HOWEVER, there is an additional issue. Significant precipitation is possible after the cold weather settles over Texas early next week. Models are showing potential for significant snow. However, the larger concern is a significant ice storm as cold low-level air lay beneath milder air aloft during a precipitation event (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2-3: Retreating snow cover ahead of ERCOT cold early next week followed by a storm middle of next week that could feature significant icing.