The Tropical Disturbance 98L Report
09/22/2022, 8:31 am EDTA Resurgent Madden Julian Oscillation Ahead!
09/26/2022, 4:57 pm EDTHeadline: West-central/central North Atlantic tropics/subtropics to stay busy in October according to ECM.
Week-2 Valid October 3-9, 2022: Development areas off East Coast and outer tropics.
Discussion: Implied is the remains of Ian exit the Mid-Atlantic Coast and race eastward. Following tropical threat east of Florida is indicated. Additionally, a new tropical issue will develop in the east-central tropics.
Week-3 Valid October 10-16, 2022: Tropical cyclone risk from West Caribbean Sea to just-off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Discussion: Into mid-October, ECM indicates tropical cyclone risk in the Western Caribbean Sea, east of the Florida Peninsula and off the East Coast of the U.S. Typically, this region is active during October.
Week-4 Valid October 17-23, 2022: Bahamas/central tropics are busy.
Discussion: ECM continues to indicate a busy tropical cyclone risk area in the Western Caribbean, Bahamas and central North Atlantic tropics. There could be at least two tropical cyclones in this scenario.
Week 5 Valid October 24-30, 2022: Late October could still be busy across central/west-central tropics.
Discussion: Late October looks busy based on ECM…tropical cyclone risk in the Bahamas, east of the Bahamas and central tropics.