The combination of a warmer than normal eastern Indian Ocean (negative Indian Ocean Dipole), La Nina biased toward the Dateline (Modoki) and a warm tropical Atlantic produce rainfall patterns that could benefit the Brazil drought zone.

The updated NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecast for September indicates an increased risk of above normal rain across Louisiana and the Mid-Atlantic region possibly related to tropical cyclone activity.

The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook.

Henri is forecast to move farther west before a north turn in about 36 hours. Consequently, tropical cyclone models are closer to southeast New England by early next week. Henri will strengthen to a hurricane during the north turn and maintain minimal hurricane strength southeast of New England early next week.