Summer 2025-26 produced a wet climate and soaking wet soils for central and southern continent where record wet conditions were observed. A drier pattern is indicated for the next few weeks. A climate shift into El Nino should promote a drier climate for next warm season.

The NOAA/CPC North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), arctic oscillation (AO), and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) projection for the 11-15-day period support cooler changes in the East U.S. likely to be included in Sunday night/Monday morning medium-range forecasts.

Support for excessive rainfall in the Central U.S. during the next 15 days is below average. To produce excessive rainfall, tropical forcing performed by presence of Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) influence is necessary. The MJO is positioned to influence Central U.S. rainfall the remainder of this week but (wet) influenced is diminished in the medium range.

NOAA/SPC indicates associated emergence of severe thunderstorms across Texas and the southern Great Plains later this week. MJO shifts eastward, past the Dateline and toward the Americas (phase_7/phase_8) through the middle third of April. During that time, tropical forcing to enhance Central U.S. rainfall is directed at the southeast Great Plains to the Midwest and then farther eastward (and weakening).