A larger concern for the Northeast Corridor Coast this weekend is high wind propelling high sea conditions as the offshore system produces hurricane force wind with 50-60 MPH gusts reaching the coast and 40+ mph away from the coast.

Record heat in New South Wales and Victoria is ongoing this week. A temporary break in the heat for the Southeast Coast is projected for early-to-middle next week while extreme heat shifts north to Queensland. In the 11-15-day forecast, GFS indicates the extreme heat returns to Southeast Australia.

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) remains active in the East Pacific as identified by tropical convection near the equator and a streak of energy associated with the subtropical jet stream pointed at Baja California. Given presence of negative arctic oscillation (-AO) and negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) coupled with the active MJO, the emerging coastal storm indicated by the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECM have excellent support.

Wet weather develops in Central/South Argentina plus Southern Brazil next week. Interestingly, both ECM and AI Graph Cast are agreeable on a 16-30-day outlook favoring wet weather in Central and Southeast Brazil while Argentina shifts hotter.