Two Major Arctic Outbreaks During One Winter Season
02/20/2025, 5:48 am EST
Chart of the day: 7-day rainfall totals.
Discussion: During the week of February 18-24, 2025, heavy rain was observed on the North Coast while the remainder of the continent received little or no rainfall.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 2-8, 2025: Extreme heat; East Coast TC risk.
Discussion: Risk of a significant tropical cyclone striking the East Coast is indicated by all models including AI Graph Cast ECM ENS (above). Elsewhere, Australia is extremely hot during early March. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 9-15, 2025: Excessive rains possible in New South Wales.
Discussion: Moisture from an inland-traveling tropical cyclone fans out across New South Wales during the period. Excessive rain is possible! The hot pattern continues away from the East Coast.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid March 16-22, 2025: MJO support wetter pattern.
Discussion: The MJO regenerates in the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent and is causal to a wet forecast for much of Australia although anomalous intense heat prevails West-central continent.