Excessive Heat/Dryness Warning Argentina!

Discussion: The 5-day temperature anomaly forecast by ECM across Argentina and into Brazil indicates prohibitive heat (Fig. 1). The ECM model is selected to make this forecast based on recent excellent skill predicting temperature anomalies in this region (Fig. 2). Coincidentally, the Argentina rainfall pattern is sharply dry (Fig. 3). The combination of lack in rainfall with anomalous heat will accelerate drying of soil moisture in this region where marginal drought is already indicted by NOAA/CPC (Fig. 4).

The short-term heat could return in the 11-15-day period. The upper air pattern over the next 15 days according to AI Graph Cast ECM ENS features amplified high-pressure areas either side of South America (Fig. 5) over marine heat waves which are strengthening (Fig. 6-7).

The risk of drier and hotter climate too finish calendar summer across South America is increasing.

Fig. 1-2: ECM is prohibitively hot across Argentina in the 5-day forecast. ECM skill scores forecasting temperature anomalies in the 1-5-day period (which is marginally hot) across Argentina is reasonable the past 30 days.

Fig. 3-4: The 1-5-day percent of normal precipitation forecast is very dry across Argentina likely to accelerate drying soils in that region.

Fig. 5-7: Amplified subtropical ridge areas either side of South America in the 15-day AI Graph Cast ECM ENS outlook across marine heat waves either side of South America. When subtropical ridge areas extend over the continent, as indicated the next 5 days in Argentina, extreme heat (and dryness) occurs.