GFS Eager to Forecast Low Pressure During The Medium-range in Gulf of Mexico

Climate Impact Company Tropical Feature

Issued: Tuesday June 17, 2025

Highlight: New product…Low pressure forecasts for each North Atlantic basin. Early season reveals the overly eager GFS.

Fig. 1: The daily GFS 360-hour low pressure forecast in the Gulf of Mexico which represents increased risk of tropical cyclone development.

Discussion: To illustrate the eagerness of GFS to forecast low pressure and increased tropical cyclone risk in the Gulf of Mexico was apparent earlier this month with low pressure risk appearing in the 8-14/11-15-day period (Fig. 1). By comparison, ECM offered no threatening low pressure for the entire 15-day forecast during the first 10 days of June (Fig. 2). Today’s forecast by GFS indicates low pressure in the 10-12-day period while ECM maintains all clear.

Fig. 2: The daily ECM 360-hour low pressure forecast in the Gulf of Mexico which represents increased risk of tropical cyclone development.