Slow Decay of El Nino Continues
04/01/2024, 7:53 pm EDT
Just-issued ECMWF Outlooks North Atlantic Tropics and U.S. Summer 2024
04/05/2024, 9:00 am EDT
Charts of the day: Rapid cooling of the Nino12 SSTA region.
Discussion: The Nino12 SSTA region is now cooler than normal thanks to a prohibitive 30-day change of -2.27C! The observation tells us that EL Nino 2023-24 is about to end and that La Nina is ahead for later 2024. Coupled with a warmer than normal North Atlantic surface, a La Nina climate should produce a buoyant hurricane season. The Colorado State University hurricane forecast for 2024 is issued tomorrow. Climate Impact Company is indicating 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes including a potential 5 hurricane strikes to the U.S. coastline.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid April 8-12, 2024
Discussion: Lingering cool weather continues to diminish as anomalous warmth is overwhelming the North America 6-10-day outlook.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid April 13-17, 2024
Discussion: The 11-15-day forecast, combining GFS and ECM, is similar to yesterday’s outlook featuring warming in the West.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: Another heavy rain event is forecast early-to-middle of next week centered on the Mid-south States. In the 11-15-day forecast, the pattern reverses drier.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid April 18-22, 2024
Discussion: Not much change indicated in the extended range forecast as anomalous warmth dominates the U.S. focused on the Midwest States.