ECM ENS Maintains The California Storm Track

Discussion: The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast yield additional impressive amount across California. The storminess extends inland across the Great Basin to the North-central U.S. mostly as snow. Interestingly, forecast models maintain the stormy pattern in California despite an easing of the sharp -PNA pattern of the past couple weeks.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid March 12-16, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: Cool weather shifts into the East/Southeast as previously indicated with a slightly cooler adjustment in the Southeast. The <32F threshold reaches northern portions of Alabama and Georgia during the period. The western chill eases slightly.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid March 17-21, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: The West U.S. chill reinvigorates while the chilly pattern in the East trends slightly less cool. Nationally, the U.S. is somewhat cooler than normal thanks to a storm track in the South States.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: ECM ENS maintains a Pacific storm track focused on California while the Florida drought receives beneficial rainfall. The 11-15-day forecast is trending more stormy although climate signal support is limited.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid March 22-26, 2023

Discussion: The latest ECM outlook indicates the chilly pattern stretches across the Northern States while the South U.S. is beginning to trend warmer. Northern California rains continue while wet weather in Florida/Georgia lingers. Most of the remainder of the nation is trending drier.