Admin: Time change Sunday. All models one hour later beginning next week.
Fig: 1: CMC ENS 48-hour snowfall forecast for 5AM EDT Monday to 5AM EDT Wednesday.
Discussion: Potential for a major snowstorm is indicated centered on next Tuesday for the Northeast U.S. Of course, the immediate draw is how much snow. The ECM and GFS have a lot of snow on the coast which could happen in the NYC area due to the strength of the upper trough. However, south/southeast New England (and probably Long Island) are in the face of an east to northeast wind off warmer than normal ocean water which should keep low levels of the atmosphere sufficiently mild for a lot of rain or pelting sleet. Inland areas are at risk for a major wet snowfall capable of producing widespread power outages. CMC is the preferred model for snow best showing the likely inland bias of heavy amount including 15-30 in. from Interior Southeast New York to the Southern Maine Coast with jackpot amount near Worcester, MA (Fig. 1).
ECM forecasts a 969 MB low pressure area south of Martha’s Vineyard at 2PM EDT on Tuesday (Fig. 2). The forecast is likely overdone. However, if correct, hurricane force wind whack the east and southeast coast of Massachusetts including the Boston area. Storm force gusts would extend well inland in this scenario. A major coastal flooding event and widespread power outages emerge if this forecast is correct. By contrast, the lowest pressure forecast by GFS is 984 MB near Nova Scotia late Tuesday and 982 by CMC MB on the Rhode Island Coast on Tuesday morning.
Fig: 2: ECM forecasts at 969 MB low pressure near Martha’s Vineyard midday Tuesday which would propel hurricane force wind into east/southeast Massachusetts.