Tropical Feature: Suddenly, the Gulf of Mexico is warming rapidly.
05/13/2024, 10:52 am EDT
AI Defeats ECM ENS in 11-15-day Outlook
05/16/2024, 5:32 am EDT
Highlight: First major heatwave of season across ERCOT ahead.
New: Issued shortly by CIC, New season 1-4 ahead and year-2 ahead forecast.
Fig. 1: The 15-day ERCOT SYSTEM 15-day average temperature forecast.
Fig. 2-3: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast.
Discussion: The first major heatwave of the season in the U.S. is ahead for Texas next week (Fig. 1). The heat dome over Mexico during springtime amplifies and causes hot and humid conditions across Texas next week. Widespread 90’s with 100’s southwest state is likely. Heat indices are well above 100F. The 12Z GFS maintains the anomalous heat in Mexico/Texas during the medium range while elsewhere varies from marginal warm to cool (Fig. 2-3). The U.S. population weight CDD forecast is near normal (Table 1).
| CDD EIA End Date | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 5/16 | 23.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 | 24.1 | 26.4 |
| 5/23 | 34.7 | -6.1 | -3.4 | 30.3 | 33.5 |
| 5/30 | 39.6 | -9.4 | +3.0 | 37.0 | 40.8 |
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.