New Transitional U.S. Thermal Pattern Lowers Forecast Skill
04/28/2024, 11:59 am EDT
Comparing CFS V2 and ECM 16-30-day Forecast Temperature Bias
05/03/2024, 5:42 am EDT
Charts of the day: Extreme heat in South/Southeast Asia.
Discussion: During April, particularly late in the month, extreme heat was observed across parts of India to Southeast Asia with extremes ranging from 111F to 119F and featuring all-time records. The extreme heat occurred across an intensifying drought zone. Not surprisingly, a large area of warm SSTA is linked to the anomalous hot weather in the north/northeast Indian Ocean and a new marine heatwave off the East Asia Coast.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 5-11, 2024: High pressure heat dome shifts to East-central Asia; Anomalous heat lingers Southeast Asia.
Discussion: Next week an immense high-pressure ridge evolves over Western China leading to widening extreme heat in Central Asia. Anomalous heat lingers across the Southeast Asia drought zone. Thundershowers ease the recent anomalous heat across India.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid May 12-18, 2024: Southeast Asia heat intensifies.
Discussion: High pressure is rebuilding over Southeast Asia where hot weather re-intensifies. Thundershowers ease the extreme heat in South-central Asia. Japan turns warmer ahead of an approaching trough.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid May 19-25, 2024: Areas of thunderstorms but drought area remains with more searing heat.
Discussion: The tropics are turning wetter. However, north of the thunderstorm activity, Northern India to Southeast Asia remains drier and hotter than normal.