Warm December Departs, Snowy January Ahead in U.S.
01/01/2024, 9:17 am EST
Preliminary Comparison Between JAN-24 Cold Event With “Uri”
01/04/2024, 5:29 pm EST
Fig. 1-3: Three of four snowstorms forecast by GFS over the next 12 days.
Discussion: The 12Z GFS piles snow via 4 storms (three are pictured) across the Northeast, Midwest, and South-central U.S. (Fig. 1-3). The snow in the East should encourage colder weather. Consequently, the warmer East U.S. midday 12Z GFS may be too warm (Fig. 4-5). The West is cold in the 6-10-day period followed by arctic air in the 11-15-day period into the Northwest States.
Fig. 4-5: The 12Z GFS temperature anomaly forecast for the medium range.
| Dates | HDD Forecast | 12-Hr Change | 24-Hr Change | 30-Year NML | 10-Year NML |
| Dec. 29-Jan. 4
| 182.5 | +0.2 | +0.4 | 205.6 | 200.7 |
| Jan. 5-11
| 193.6 | -1.8 | -7.6 | 209.4 | 205.3 |
| Jan. 12-18
| 219.7 | -26.0 | +13.9 | 211.9 | 207.5 |
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.