New NOAA Long-lead Forecasts for Winter 2024-25

Fig. 1-2: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation outlook for December 2024.

Discussion: The latest NOAA/CPC long-lead temperature and precipitation probability forecast for the month ahead (December) reveal equal risk of above, below, and normal temperature for the northern half of the nation while most of the southern half favors warmer than normal scenario (Fig. 1). Obviously, with the cold start to December, the monthly forecast implies a warmer regime for the northern states during the second half of the month. The precipitation outlook is dry across the far south and southeast part of the nation including the immediate East Coast (Fig. 2). The meteorological winter (DEC/JAN/FEB 2024-25) probabilistic temperature outlook continues to favor cold risk across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. while the South and East U.S. is warmer than normal (Fig. 3). The probabilistic precipitation forecast maintains a stormy Northwest U.S. and Great Lakes region winter regime while the southern tier of the U.S. is dry (Fig. 4). The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook weakens the Midwest and Interior Northwest drought conditions while maintaining drought in the Northeast Corridor, northwest Great Plains, and much of the southern states (Fig. 5). A new drought is forecast across Florida to the Carolinas. NOAA cites neutral ENSO in November 2024 although identifies relative to waters west and poleward of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters are moderately cool and some signs of a La Nina climate are present and may continue through winter which biases the climate outlook toward La Nina climatology.

Fig. 3-5: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation outlook for DEC/JAN/FEB 2024-25.