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Fig. 1: Just-issued “major heat” risk alert from NOAA for the Midwest/Mid-south U.S. centered on Sunday, June 16.

Discussion: To the north of a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and to the east of an approaching cold front and beneath strengthening subtropical ridging an area of “major” heat is forecast by NOAA centered on Iowa and the Mid-south U.S. on Sunday June 16 (Fig. 1). The maximum temperature in the “major” heat risk area is well into the 90’s with heat index to the 100-105F range. Sunday is the peak heat day. However, temperatures could be nearly as hot for most of next week.