Drifting Wetter Black Sea Region and Brazil Where Rain is Needed

Fig. 1-4: Percent of normal precipitation across Europe and the daily soil moisture anomalies analysis plus the GFS+ECM percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe and Western Russia through the next 14 days.

Discussion: A wetter trend appears in the 7-day percent of normal precipitation analysis across Europe for the Black Sea region while Spain and Portugal remain soaking wet (Fig. 1). Areas to the north stay very dry. Prior to the widening rainfall, the drought condition across Eastern Europe to the Black Sea region is worsening (Fig. 2). Forecast models vary widely on upper air regimes during the next 2 weeks therefore rainfall projections are not confident. Combining (equally) GFS and ECM renders wet weather shifting into the Western Black Sea region this week (Fig. 3) and across the entire region next week (Fig. 4).

Fig. 5-8: The 7-day percent of normal precipitation across South America and the daily soil moisture anomalies analysis plus the GFS+ECM percent of normal rainfall forecast during the next 14 days.

During the past week, dryness has dominated South America (Fig. 5). While the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation has caused excessive rain in Australia, the compensating subsidence portion of the MJO pattern has created a South America dry-biased climate (of late). Consequently, drought conditions in Brazil to far northeastern Argentina has strengthened (Fig. 6). However, the subtropical ridge keeping Brazil dry breaks down over the next 2 weeks, especially next week which should allow wetter weather to develop. Meanwhile short-wave energy in the mid-latitude upper flow brings copious chances of rain for Argentina. Combining the GFS and ECM yields a wetter trend in both the 1-7-day and 8-14-day outlooks (Fig. 7-8).