U.S. Population Weight CDD Forecasts are Below 10-year Normal

Fig. 1: Climate Impact Company projected U.S. population weight CDD for each month of the warm season compared with the 10-year normal and last 3 years.

Discussion: U.S. population weight CDD for May 2024 was 117 which is very close to the 10-year normal (118). Natural gas traders are generally more reliant on the 10-year normal as a reference therefore May is considered a near normal cooling demand month to start the 2024 warm season. In June, due to the incoming Midwest trough, the CDD forecast is cut to 230 which is substantially below the 10-year normal of 252. The forecast is hot in the West but cooling demand in the Midwest/East U.S. and into northern ERCOT is cut back. It’s possible there is a late month warm recovery but probably not enough to drive CDD above the 10-year normal. The July and August forecasts have increased slightly to 359 and 325 CDD respectively. Each value is 7-12 CDD below the 10-year normal. The July forecast 14 to 37 CDD below the hot mid-summer of 2023 and 2021. The August forecast is not as hot as the past 3 years and just beneath the 10-year normal. The issue, especially in August, is expanse of cloudiness suppressing heat risk due to tropical influences. If tropical moisture fails to emerge, the forecast would be much hotter. September is projected at the 10-year normal and similar with the past 3 years. The forecast is unchanged at 185 CDD.