Cold Snap Next Few Days East U.S., Another One Second Week of January
12/20/2024, 10:58 am EST
Stratospheric Cooling/La Nina Climate Strengthening: Trend Is Away from Important Cold East U.S. in January
12/26/2024, 4:20 am EST
Charts of the day: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecasts.
Discussion: The latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all forecast models through the first full week of January identify an extremely changeable pattern featuring strong warmth and low national heating demand next week followed by a colder reversal generating in early January. CFS V2 and ECM are disagreeable on how cold mid-January HDD projections while late January moderates to slightly warmer than normal.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid December 29, 2024-January 2, 2025 (24-hour change)
Discussion: The ECM ENS maintains the warm New Year’s Holiday period. In fact, the outlook is slightly warmer.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid January 3-7, 2025 (24-hour change)
Discussion: ECM ENS chills the U.S. pattern in the 11-15-day period. However, the colder change is less dramatic than yesterday’s forecast.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: Wet weather spreads across the East in the 6-10-day period and over to snow away from the coast late in the period. The Northwest turns snowy in the 6-10-day period. After Day-10 the storm track is weaker mainly focused over the west/northwest Great Plains and into the Rockies as snow.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid January 8-12, 2025
Discussion: ECM is vividly much colder in the extended range outlook. Most of the precipitation across the Northern U.S. is snow helping to enhance the cold.