Weekly Gas Population Week HDD Observations for December/January Forecast

Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil Drought Concerns

12/22/2021, 9:02 am EST

Sneaky Cold New York/New England Next TUE/WED!

12/28/2021, 12:54 pm EST

12/27/2021, 8:38 am EST

The 2021-22 HDD Season Forecast is Adjusted

	OCT-21	NOV-21	DEC-21	JAN-22	FEB-22	MAR-22
Observed/ Forecast	*206*	*552*	762	950	762	587
Last Forecast	–	–	839	938	781	573
Last Year	294	466	809	876	892	567
20-Year Rank	2^nd Warmest	9^th Coldest	4^th Warmest	10^th Coldest	9^th Warmest	8th Warmest
10 Year Normal	267	561	797	909	784	610
20 Year Normal	280	545	837	925	797	616
30 Year Normal	311	589	885	991	819	642

Table 1: Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season, previous forecast, 20-year rank and various climatology.

Discussion: The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season is updated (Table 1). The last forecast shown is from one month ago. Note that December was much warmer than forecast and is projected the 4^th warmest of the past 20 years. January is adjusted a little colder and should average a middle-of-the-road 10^th coldest of the past 20 years. The month of February is adjusted warmer and now averages 9^th warmest of the past 20 years. Additional warmer adjustments are possible for February. The March forecast is adjusted slightly colder and averages 8^th warmest of the past 20 years.

Compared to the last 3 winter seasons, the 2021-22 cold season is the warmest Q4 (of 2021), tied for coldest January and tied for warmest February (Fig. 1). Compared to the 30-year and 10-year climatology, the 2021-22 cold season is very warm with each month except January warmer than the already warm 10-year normal (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: U.S. gas population weight 2021-22 cold season monthly HDD anomalies compared to the last 3 seasons.

Fig. 2: U.S. gas population weight HDD on a monthly basis for the 2021-22 cold season versus the 30-year and 10-year normal.

Despite the warm forecast for the 2021-22 cold season, the coldest month of winter (January) does offer some colder weather. The Climate Impact Company 4-week gas population weight observed weekly HDD anomalies identifiers the warm December but is trending toward a colder scenario in January (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: U.S. gas population weight HDD anomalies observed for each week of December compared to the January forecast.

The 2021-22 cold season monthly HDD rankings reveal the very warm October and December and middle-of-the-road 20-year rankings for the other cold months (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecasts and their 20-year rankings for the 2021-22 cold season.