Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil Drought Concerns

NOAA (and CIC) Climate Outlooks Review
12/20/2021, 8:24 am EST
Weekly Gas Population Week HDD Observations for December/January Forecast
12/27/2021, 8:38 am EST
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While much of Brazil has been soaking wet in recent months, the southeast has remained mostly dry. Additionally, long-term rainfall deficits imply deep layer soil moisture dryness. Northeast Argentina is trending very dry and hot to help accelerate drought concerns.

Highlight: Maintaining a dry/hot forecast for Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil.

Charts of the day: Last week’s rainfall and the 10-day rainfall outlook.

Discussion: During the past week the drought concern area in Northeast Argentina to Southeast Brazil was mostly very dry. However, just to the north, over-achieving rains soaked southwest, central and eastern Brazil. The 10-day outlook pushes the heavy rain farther north and east ion Brazil while dryness continues to dominate Argentina to southeast Brazil.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 2-8, 2022: Northeast Argentina maintains a concerning hot/dry climate pattern.

Discussion: ECM ENS projects anomalous heat and dryness across Northeast Argentina to far southern portions of Brazil during early January. The wet belt remains over central and eastern sections of Brazil. The drought concern area in Northeast Argentina maintains the early season hostile weather conditions.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 9-15, 2022: The drought-concern area stays dry/hot. Heavy rains in Brazil!

Discussion: The GFS ENS is used to project the week-3 ahead climate across South America. The model notes the developing dry soils in Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil and responds by producing atmospheric subsidence across that region keeping the area dry and hot. The wet weather pattern is robust in central and eastern portions of Brazil.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 16-22, 2022: Still mostly dry/hot in the drought concern area.

Discussion: The drought zone in Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil remains mostly dry and hotter than normal while Northeast Brazil is soaking wet.