A Wet Spring for Europe to the Black Sea; Southwest Europe Drought Developing
04/30/2023, 12:44 pm EDTHeavy Rains for the Great Plains and Europe Ahead
05/08/2023, 5:15 am EDT
Fig. 1: Heavy rain is indicated in the Central U.S. based on the 12Z GFS.
Discussion: At midday, the 12Z GFS unloads heavy rain on the core of the U.S. drought zone in Kansas and vicinity (Fig. 1). Additional heavy rain in the Southeast U.S. The 12Z GFS 15-day precipitation forecast was much heavier since 24 hours ago in the central Great Plains while the outlook is much drier across Oklahoma and the Upper Midwest (Fig. 2). Virginia to the Southeast U.S. is also much wetter since 24 hours ago. The 12Z GFS 15-day outlook at midday averaged cooler (less warm) across the Central and East U.S. (Fig. 3). The May 12-18 CDD forecasts lost all gains made 24 hours ago with a much cooler change (Table 1).
Fig. 2: The 12Z GFS 24-hour rainfall change.
Fig. 3: The 12Z GFS 24-hour temperature change.
| Dates | CDD Forecast | 12-Hr Change | 24-Hr Change | 10-Year NML | 30-Year NML |
| Apr. 28-May 4
| 11.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 16.0 | 16.4 |
| May 5-11
| 22.5 | -3.8 | -2.5 | 20.2 | 21.4 |
| May 12-18
| 25.3 | -14.5 | -18.5 | 25.8 | 28.2 |
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.
| Dates | HDD Forecast | 12-Hr Change | 24-Hr Change | 10-Year NML | 30-Year NML |
| Apr. 28-May 4
| 74.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 55.6 | 54.6 |
| May 5-11
| 42.7 | +9.5 | +7.2 | 45.1 | 43.8 |
| May 12-18
| 22.6 | +2.1 | +2.3 | 35.3 | 33.7 |
Table 2: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.