Are We Heading Toward an El Nino Summer in the Tropics?

Fig. 1: The surface precipitation rate anomalies for JUL/AUG/SEP 2015 when the last full-tilt El Nino was present.

Discussion: The East Pacific is warming, and dynamic models indicate a full-throttle El Nino for the tropical cyclone season. By August, the mean Nino34 SSTA forecast amongst 6 leading models is >1.2C according to Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Remember, we’re in the ENSO springtime prediction barrier (SPB) consequently ENSO forecasts are used with caution. However, if a full-tilt El Nino develops similar to the last fortified warm ENSO episode which occurred in 2015, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the Gulf States could observe very little rainfall with very limited risk of tropical cyclone activity (Fig. 1). Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin is confined to near the West Africa Coast with potential for a mid-latitude system developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast! The East Pacific (southwest of Baja California) is tropically active.