12Z GFS Introduces New TC Threat Next Week in Texas

Highlight: 12Z GFS introduces new TC threat for Texas next week. 12Z GFS is correctly much warmer  in the extended range.

Fig. 1: The 12Z GFS indicates a tropical cyclone into Texas next week.

Discussion: At midday, the 12Z GFS introduces a new tropical cyclone risk emerging in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula and traveling northwestward toward the Houston area early-to-middle of next week (Fig. 1). The Northeast U.S. rainfall due to a stalled front eventually merging with Debby indicates 3-7 in. according to the 12Z GFS (Fig. 2). The 12Z GFS medium-range forecast (Fig. 3-4) correctly trends much warmer in the 11-15-day period.

Fig. 2: The 12Z GFS rainfall forecast for the Northeast U.S. for tomorrow through Sunday.

Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast.

Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.