Turning Cooler South America in 6-10-Day Outlook
08/04/2024, 4:04 pm EDT
Drought Continues on the Australian South Coast
08/06/2024, 5:15 pm EDT
Highlight: 12Z GFS introduces new TC threat for Texas next week. 12Z GFS is correctly much warmer in the extended range.
Fig. 1: The 12Z GFS indicates a tropical cyclone into Texas next week.
Discussion: At midday, the 12Z GFS introduces a new tropical cyclone risk emerging in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula and traveling northwestward toward the Houston area early-to-middle of next week (Fig. 1). The Northeast U.S. rainfall due to a stalled front eventually merging with Debby indicates 3-7 in. according to the 12Z GFS (Fig. 2). The 12Z GFS medium-range forecast (Fig. 3-4) correctly trends much warmer in the 11-15-day period.
Fig. 2: The 12Z GFS rainfall forecast for the Northeast U.S. for tomorrow through Sunday.
Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast.
| CDD EIA End Date | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 8/8 | 94.0 | +0.2 | -1.3 | 78.3 | 83.6 |
| 8/15 | 77.1 | +2.5 | -1.4 | 75.7 | 81.3 |
| 8/22 | 95.3 | +7.8 | +8.3 | 72.5 | 78.6 |
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.