Tropical Disturbance 90L The Next Potential Important Hurricane

Highlight: Tropical Disturbance 90L the next potential important hurricane.

Fig. 1: Tropical Disturbance 90L is developing off the West Africa coast.

Discussion: Tropical Disturbance 90L appears to be the strongest tropical wave to move off the West Africa Coast so far this season (Fig. 1). Consequently, tropical cyclone models develop 90L with a west to west-northwest 5-day track (Fig. 2) with intensification to hurricane strength (Fig. 3). A category-3 major hurricane is possible in 5 days. This system is a concern for the U.S. East Coast given the potential influence on the steering currents of a west-travelling hurricane in the North Atlantic subtropics. Right now, the ECM day-10 forecast location is east of Bermuda and forward movement has not yet turned north or northeast (Fig. 4). The next storm name is Larry.

Fig. 2: Tropical cyclone model tracks forecast for Tropical Disturbance 90L.

Fig. 3: Tropical cyclone model intensities for Tropical Disturbance 90L.

Fig. 4: The ECM day-10 forecast location for 90L (a hurricane by this time).